Clinton vs Trump

Last week currency market anxiety over the political risk of the US Election was brought to bear on price action. The FBI’s re-opened investigation into Hilary Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state had damaged her lead in the polls and reinvigorated the Trump campaign. Although Clinton has again been cleared this morning, the race to the White House is still on.

Many suggest Trump is a material risk to stability and markets are nervous over the economic, diplomatic and geopolitical implications of a Trump presidency. It was no surprise that we saw the US dollar weaken throughout last week and with the Brexit high court ruling in the UK, sterling had its best week against the US dollar since 2009.

Going into the final day of campaigning a Clinton win seems more likely. If only it were that simple.

If the EU referendum in June taught us anything, it’s to be wary of political risk spilling over into financial markets. This election is too close to call, and the full extent of the discontent in regards to social inequality and distrust of the establishment will only be fully borne out when the ballots have been cast and counted. In the UK the protest vote was underestimated, the repercussions of which will be part of the UK landscape for the foreseeable future.

The US presidential election is a risk event which has been driven by similar anti-establishment resentment to that seen in the UK EU referendum. It is possible that this week’s result could cause an upset of similar magnitude. In fact, whatever the outcome there is potential in the short term for dramatic moves in financial markets.

To discuss this in more detail, call your personal currency market expert on +44 (0)20 7989 0000.

Extended trading hours between 8 - 9 November 2016

Monday 7th November – 7.30am – 7pm

Tuesday 8th November – 7.30am – 9pm

Wednesday 9th November – 4:00am – 7:00pm

Thursday 10th November – 7.30am – 7pm

Friday 11th November – 7.30am – 6pm

Important information for all trades this election week

During the US Election period, any trades secured may be subject to increased deposit contributions and/or changes in required settlement dates. Please consult your broker for more information about how this may affect you.

In order to take advantage of any exchange rate movements during this volatile period, FC Exchange recommends that clients transfer money on account prior to the US Election result.

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